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This is a really intriguing matchup. Andy Reid’s Chiefs are coming off a bye week, which is usually a great sign as Reid is 20-3 coming off the rest week. However, since the 2014 season, he’s 0-4 against the Titans despite often being heavily favored in several of the games.

Obviously the main factor in that record is Derrick Henry, who is still the most dominant running back in the league. Henry is coming off a huge game against the Texans in which he rushed for 219 yards and two touchdowns, averaging over six yards a carry. The Chiefs’ rush defense is highly ranked but that ranking is a bit deceiving considering their Week 4 win against Tampa Bay in which the Bucs barely ran the ball. Over their past three games, Reid’s Chiefs have given up 127 rushing yards a game.

The Chiefs are double-digit, 13.5-point home favorites in this one but that seems to underestimate Henry’s ability to take over a game. Oddly enough, the key to this one may by Ryan Tannehill. At the time of this writing, Tannehill was logging some reps during practice while his ankle was healing. If he starts it will force the Chiefs to at least respect the pass and open up some lanes for Henry, who as we’ve seen doesn’t need much. If Tannehill starts, the Titans will win this one. If the rookie Malik Willis starts, the Chiefs will be able to pack the box and keep Henry contained and likely win the game.

Despite what Vegas says, if Tannehill starts, take the Titans on the moneyline. If Willis starts, look for the Chiefs to take this one while Henry gets bottled up.

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